ASX 200 Live Today – Friday, 11th September

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, September 11. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We’ll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

New updates

Tech stocks continue to fall

[11:43 am] Information technology stocks continue to slide with the XIJ down 1.83% this morning and down in 9 of the last 10 sessions.

Miners dip to a six-week low

[10:13 am] Miners are on the backfoot, with the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index down 3.6% and now 8.6% off the 25 August record high.

S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index daily chart (Source: TradingView)

Here are the top large cap movers this morning, with a mix of copper, lithium, gold and rare earth names leading the downside move.

Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:09 am] Energy, insurers, healthcare and banks edge slightly higher in early trade.

Top ASX 200 losers

[10:09 am] High-flying copper names, gold and tech stocks open sharply lower.

ASX 200 tumbles amid a sea of red for miners

[10:05 am] The ASX 200 is down 87 pts (-0.99%), with surprisingly five sectors trading in positive territory, while the Materials sector tumbles 4% off the back of a broad-based selloff across base and precious metals.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

Bessent plays down the buyback shortfall

[9:39 am] The Treasury Secretary said the bond market is in good shape after an operation that fell short of its cap coincided with a sharp selloff in yields.

• The buyback closed with US$5.19bn purchased against the US$6bn cap flagged on Wednesday, only the third shortfall in 53 operations targeting longer-dated debt since the program was reintroduced in 2024.

• Offers came in at around US$10bn versus a typical US$20bn, with Bessent saying Treasury only buys back cheap and that holders wanted to keep their long-dated securities.

• Bessent said investors are not demanding a premium for longer-term US debt and characterised the concerns as noise, pointing to two strong auctions in recent days and to bonds trading unusually closely with energy prices.

• Ten-year yields have climbed to 4.96% from below 4% before the first US strikes on Iran on 28 February, with 30-year yields near the highest since 2007.

• On the intervention, which has also extended to the Japanese yen, Bessent attributed his actions partly to Iran attempting to create economic problems through bond yields and oil prices, and rejected the framing of a conflict with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Source: Bloomberg

GQG funds under management fall again in August

[9:38 am] GQG Partners reported a fourth consecutive monthly decline in FUM, with outflows across all four strategies compounded by negative investment performance.

• Ending FUM down 4.6% to US$149.2bn at 31 August from US$156.4bn at 31 July.

• Net outflows of US$4.3bn in the month, spread across International (US$0.8bn), Emerging Markets (US$1.2bn), Global (US$1.1bn) and US (US$1.1bn).

• Investment performance detracted US$2.9bn in August, negative across every strategy.

• Year to date FUM is down 9.0% from US$163.9bn at 31 December 2025, with net outflows of US$23.9bn partly offset by US$9.2bn of positive investment performance.

• Emerging Markets and US have seen the sharpest year to date declines, with Emerging Markets down 16.4% to US$34.1bn and US down 18.8% to US$12.1bn.

Company page: GQG Partners (GQG)

Alkane lifts reserves at both Tomingley and Björkdal

[9:26 am] Alkane has released FY26 resource and reserve statements for its two operating gold mines, with reserves growing at each despite depletion from production.

• Tomingley ore reserves up 3.2% to 641,000 ounces of gold, net of 95koz of depletion against site record production of 80koz.

• Growth at Tomingley came from exploration and grade control work within Roswell during FY26 alongside higher gold price assumptions.

• Björkdal ore reserves up 3.7% to 563,000 ounces of gold, net of 48koz of depletion, with replacement from continued exploration and resource extension adjacent to the mine.

• Björkdal resources across the mine and the Storheden and Norrberget deposits total 1.5Moz of gold in the Measured and Indicated categories and 0.61Moz in the Inferred category, with the increase driven by the inclusion of Storheden and near-mine material from 2025 and 2026 drilling.

• Not updated were the San Antonio open cut, where grade control drilling awaits the Newell Highway realignment, plus Peak Hill, Boda and Kaiser due to insufficient further drilling.

Company page: Alkane Resources (ALK)

Tivan clears final approvals for Molyhil drilling

[9:25 am] Tivan has secured the regulatory and cultural heritage approvals needed to start an 8,000m drilling program at its wholly owned Molyhil Tungsten Project in the Northern Territory.

• Final regulatory approval came from the NT Government, with the Central Land Council issuing a Sacred Site Clearance Certificate covering the proposed activities.

• The 8,000m program will generate resource, metallurgical, geotechnical and hydrogeological data to support feasibility studies, approvals and development planning, with mobilisation scheduling now being finalised.

• The resource stands at 4.647mt at 0.26% tungsten trioxide and 0.09% molybdenum on a 0.05% tungsten trioxide cut-off, for 12,100 tonnes of tungsten trioxide and 4,400 tonnes of molybdenum.

• A Pre-Feasibility Study is under way following an April Scoping Study that delivered a base case pre-tax NPV8 of $534.3m.

• Sumitomo Corporation and ETFS Capital signed Key Terms MOUs in June 2026 for up to $50m in stage-gated equity investment, with Tivan retaining an effective 82.5% interest at FID subject to long-form agreements.

Company page: Tivan (TVN)

Jupiter Mines MD resigns

[9:24 am] Brad Rogers is leaving after four years to take a CEO role at another listed company, with an internal appointment stepping in on an interim basis.

• Rogers stays as MD until the end of November 2026, then remains available in a consultancy capacity until the end of February 2027.

• No salary applies during the consultancy period, though Rogers remains eligible for short-term and long-term incentives under the Company’s Incentive Plan during that period and for a period afterwards.

• Matthew Jarvis has been appointed interim CEO effective immediately, having joined Jupiter in 2022 as a mining engineer with 25 years across South Africa and Australia, including 16 years in manganese.

• Jarvis is based in Johannesburg and has worked on Jupiter’s growth and consolidation strategies plus mine planning and operational improvement at the Tshipi manganese mine.

• Chair Ian Murray said the Board has long considered Jarvis a strong successor to Rogers, citing his manganese, operations, mine planning and business development experience.

Company page: Jupiter Mines (JMS)

Copper and commodities smashed

[9:17 am] Copper prices tumbled 4.8% overnight to US$6.53/lb, a massive one-day decline but only offset the last six days worth of gains. Copper equities were quick to tumble, with NYSE-listed BHP shares down 5.3%, while TSX-listed Capstone Copper and FireFly Metals fell 9.3% and 7.1% respectively. It’s going to be a rough session for local miners.

Copper daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

Beyond copper, the broader commodity complex (outside of agriculture and energy) also traded sharply lower.

• Platinum down 5.9% to US$1,783/oz

• Silver down 5.5% to US$63.55/oz

• Palladium down 5.3% to US$1,280/t

• Zinc down 5.1% to US$3,821/t

• Aluminium down 2.5% to US$3,259/t

• Gold down 1.8% to US$4,320/oz

Copper smashed as White House tariff plan stalls

[9:11 am] Reuters reported the administration has yet to decide on refined copper tariffs, with affordability concerns weighing against the case for supporting domestic supply.

• The proposal put to Trump was for a 15% tariff from 1 January 2027 rising to 30% in 2028, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s recommendation delivered by a 30 June deadline and not disclosed.

• Record copper prices had been driven by buyers stockpiling ahead of the expected duties, building one of the world’s largest inventories in the US and keeping metal from flowing to international markets.

• The US imports roughly half its copper needs and has just two operating smelters, owned by Freeport and Rio, with refined imports up 16-fold since 2015 as production fell 20%.

• S&P Global expects AI and defence demand to lift global copper consumption 50% by 2040.

Source: Reuters

Fed rate probabilities decisively shift to hikes

[9:04 am] After the elevated PPI print, surging oil prices and vertical move for bond yields, Fed target rate probabilities are now 71.3% for a 25 bp hike (vs. 49.4% a week ago).

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

Year-end probabilities now favour two rate hikes, at 48.1% vs. 32.5% a week ago.

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

US wholesale prices lift Fed hike odds

[9:02 am] August producer prices matched expectations but the energy-driven detail pushed markets closer to pricing a Fed hike next week.

• Headline PPI rose 0.4% in August, in line with ests, taking the annual rate to 5.4% from 4.8% in July.

• Core PPI rose 0.2% versus ests of 0.3%, while core excluding trade services rose 0.3%, in line with ests.

• Energy prices jumped 4.2% after two months of declines, with diesel up 24.1% to record highs and accounting for more than a third of the 1.1% rise in producer goods prices.

• Rate pricing moved to about a 70% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the 15 to 16 September meeting, up from 62% before the release, with the benchmark currently at 3.50% to 3.75%.

ECB hikes again as the oil shock feeds through

[8:56 am] The ECB lifted rates for the second time since the Iran war began, and hawkish projections have traders pricing in three more increases.

• The deposit rate rose a quarter point to 2.50%, with the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending facility to 2.90%, all effective 16 September.

• Traders are now fully pricing three further increases by October 2027, putting the ECB ahead of the Fed and Bank of England, both of which have yet to respond to the war and may hold again next week.

• Fresh projections have headline inflation averaging 3.0% this year before easing to 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, with the 2026 growth forecast upgraded to 0.9% after a 0.6% expansion in the June quarter.

• Euro zone inflation ran at 3.3% year on year in August with oil above US$105 a barrel and European gas costs back at levels last seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though underlying inflation, services prices and wage pressures all eased.

• Christine Lagarde called the hike “a no brainer”, said it was unanimous and robust against all three of the ECB’s scenarios, and flagged that higher energy costs will feed gradually into core and food inflation, keeping headline above target into the first half of 2027.

• Lagarde also said the Council did not discuss the future path, that she has been surprised by the economy’s resilience with post-cutoff data pointing to even stronger 2026 growth, and that the ECB is watching the long end of the bond market closely, describing AI-related financing needs as a key driver of the move in yields.

Source: Bloomberg

Trump promises a $5,000 dividend if Republicans hold Congress

[8:55 am] The pledge, made at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, carries a price tag above $1tn at a time when US borrowing costs are already climbing.

• The payment would go to every adult citizen if Republicans win both the House and Senate, with roughly 245.3m US adult citizens putting the total cost above US$1.2tn, more than was distributed under Covid-era stimulus.

• Fiscal backdrop is stretched, with US debt passing US$40tn last month, the deficit nearing US$1.8tn in the fiscal year to date at around 5.8% of GDP, and debt at 122.6% of GDP in the first quarter.

• Interest costs have already reached nearly US$1.3tn in the fiscal year to date, roughly comparable to the size of the proposed payout and just below the almost US$1.4tn committed to defence spending in 2026.

• Tariff revenue does not cover it, with the Penn Wharton Budget Model estimating about US$300bn collected between January 2025 and July 2026 and more than US$100bn refunded since February after the Supreme Court struck down a swath of the duties.

• Legislative path is unresolved, requiring congressional approval, with Senator Bernie Moreno saying he would prepare a bill after the election and Freedom Caucus member Chip Roy questioning how it would be funded.

• Vice President JD Vance narrowed the proposal to the middle class and pointed to tariff revenue as the funding source, though Trump’s claim of US$21tn in US investment sits nearly US$10tn above the figure on the White House’s own website.

Oil surges past US$107 as the Iran war opens a second front in the Red Sea

[8:54 am] Brent posted its biggest one-day gain in months as Houthi forces seized Yemen’s port of Mocha, Saudi output collapsed to a 36-year low and the conflict spilled into rates, fuel prices and US politics.

• Brent is up more than 75% this year but remains below the April wartime peak of US$126, with Dated Brent, the physical benchmark, priced at US$120 on Thursday as fresh Asian buying tightens supply.

• Saudi crude production fell 1.9m barrels a day to 6.238m barrels a day in August, the lowest since 1990, with tanker tracking showing exports down about a third to roughly 3m barrels a day and supply to market of 7.122m barrels a day pointing to an inventory drawdown.

• OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels a day, the fifth consecutive downward revision, while group output fell 640,000 barrels a day in August as Saudi exports were disrupted and a US blockade cut Iranian shipments.

• The Houthis took Mocha on Thursday and are advancing south toward Dhubab, putting them in reach of Bab al-Mandeb, which at 29km is narrower than the 34km Strait of Hormuz. Defence analyst Wolfgang Pusztai said the group could control the waterway with artillery alone, without needing missiles or drones.

• US refined product markets are tightening fast, with diesel futures above US$5 a gallon for the first time since April 2022, retail diesel nearing US$6 a gallon and European gasoil approaching US$200 a barrel. The EIA projects US diesel inventories will fall this month to the lowest in more than two decades.

• Positioning is stretched, with Kpler data showing trend-following CTAs flipped to 100% maximum long in Brent on Thursday and 91% long in WTI, suggesting buying capacity has largely been exhausted.

• Trump said oil prices will not fall until after the November midterms and that the war will end “immediately after the election”, a rare acknowledgement that neither the conflict nor the price pressure is likely to ease near term. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan said he sees no guarantee of that outcome.

• Warren Patterson of ING said rising prices are a concern heading into the midterms and that a further significant leg higher would require the recent escalation to translate into renewed disruption of flows through Hormuz.

Source: Bloomberg

BNP calls the end of the credit bull market

[8:47 am] BNP Paribas has reversed a three-year constructive call on corporate credit, arguing AI-related borrowing is about to overwhelm investor demand.

• Hyperscaler issuance of roughly $400bn is expected from Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and peers next year, on top of the billions already raised in 2026.

• Net fixed income supply is forecast to reach a record $3.7tn next year, with credit becoming oversupplied at the same time as government bonds.

• Spread forecasts have euro investment-grade six basis points wider and dollar investment-grade seven basis points wider by the end of 2026, driven by steep valuations, tighter monetary policy and rising debt loads.

• Viktor Hjort, BNP’s global head of credit strategy, wrote that “AI is driving credit markets from bond scarcity to bond abundance”, with no clear demand driver over the next few quarters able to keep pace with supply.

• JPMorgan flagged last month that the scale of the bond sales is testing investor tolerance, with the bank’s head of European investment-grade finance framing placement as a question of price rather than capacity.

Source: Bloomberg

Bond yields trade even more vertical

[8:42 am] Things are starting to spiral out of control, though all things considered, US markets traded relatively calm (VIX up 8% to 17.8, but still well-below panic levels).

US bond yield charts (Source: TradingView)

As Coolabah’s Christopher Joye puts it:

Source: X

Treasury selloff accelerates on oil and buyback disappointment

[8:48 am] US yields surged across the curve on Thursday as a four-month high in oil and an underwhelming Treasury buyback compounded a selloff that has been building for six months.

• Two-year yields rose 15 basis points to 4.58%, the biggest one-day move since the April 2025 tariff meltdown, with traders now wagering the Fed could start raising rates as soon as next week.

• Ten-year yields climbed 11 basis points to the cusp of their late 2023 peak, while 30-year yields rose 7 basis points to 5.36%, a fresh 19-year high.

• Treasury bought $5.19bn of 10 to 20 year debt in its first expanded buyback, below the $6bn maximum announced and despite receiving $10.5bn of offers, with government bonds cheapening versus swaps most at the 20-year tenor.

• Brent crude rose above US$107 a barrel on attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and no sign of US and Iran de-escalation, with a wholesale prices gauge also showing building inflation pressure.

• George Catrambone of DWS Americas said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is “bringing a squirt gun to a firefight” and that the operation is not enough to compress the premium investors demand on 30-year debt given debt, deficit and inflation concerns.

• Bessent said on Thursday that Treasury only buys bonds back cheap and that holders appear reluctant to part with long-dated paper, with TD Securities noting Treasury may need to accept less competitive bids if it wants to fill future operations in full.

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 78 pts (-0.89%). Here’s what happened overnight:

• A fourth straight down day on Wall Street, as Brent surged 7.6% to US$109 a barrel, US Treasury yields shot up 7-15 bps across the curve to fresh multi-year highs and next week’s Fed decision now overwhelmingly favours a hike

  • S&P 500 (-0.58%), Nasdaq (-0.65%), Dow (-0.61%), Russell 2000 (-1.04%)

  • US 2-year up 15 bps to 4.58%, highest since Jul-24

  • US 10-year up 11 bps to 4.96%, highest since Oct-23

  • US 30-year up 7 bps to 5.36%, highest since Jun-07

• Crude was the main catalyst after Houthi forces seized Yemen’s port of Mocha and attacks from Yemen widened to Saudi energy infrastructure

• Carnage across commodity markets, with platinum, silver, palladium and zinc down more than 5%, copper tumbled 4.8% after the US copper tariff plans stalled amid affordability concerns